# Odds On Politics

I decided to combine two of my fields of interest: Politics and betting. While one appears to be a silly waste of time and money, betting is not so clever either.

The math behind is simple: The odds reflect the probability that a certain event is expected to happen. For decimal odds, the formula I use is 100 * (1 / odd). As source, I use Betfair Exchange which is the world's biggest bet exchange website.

The whole deal works like this: The more likely and event, the lower the odds: If you think the chance is about 50-50, you would make an odd of 2.00, meaning if you put 100\$ on it and the event happens, you would receive 200\$ back (or nothing, if the event does not occur). If you think the chance is 25%, you would make the odd 4.00, so your return is higher, but so is the risk.

There are mainly two ways you can do all this online: On bet exchange websites, users can manually set their own odds, and other users may or may not make a bet with your for that odd. So we have "swarm intelligence" at work, in the broadest sense. The other way are bookies, where you have a company ("bookie") that tries to figure out what odds are both attractive for their costumers to place a bet on, but also reflect the likelihood of an event. You can safely assume that a substantial amount of research is done here, but they also take the betting behaviour of their users into account.

The result is the probability that is shown on the website. It is updated every week.

This website is run by

Stefan Rack, Ostendstraße 18, 60314 Frankfurt, Germany
Contact: hello@oddsagainsttrump.com